An incomplete look at the Disaster in Iowa.

After initially assuming the best (incompetence, media bias towards their preferred candidate(s)) I have since come to see evidence that the Iowa situation is a bit beyond that. It is unacceptable the full data are still not out, on their own.

Here is a collection of events, sources, and graphics that may be useful for those confused or interested.

At first everything seemed to be going well, with Bernie and Pete leading, when the new app that had been developed to collect caucus results spectacularly failed.

 

At its most basic and least conspiratorial reading, the media behavior after this has been biased and indefensible.

  1. After an inexplicably long wait for 62% of the results, the number that airs on the front pages (and is displayed in articles and headlines claiming Buttigieg victory) is State Delegate % (example). Even though Bernie leads in actual votes, and Pete and Bernie are tied in actual won delegates going forward (this holds still). Why is this number the one being displayed, when it is, at best, an interesting look at the behind the scenes machinations which take the choice away from the popular vote? This number is, especially, the least interesting to look at when viewing partial results. The party should not have released partial results, and the motivations are questionable at best, once again. Here is the data presented more unbiasedly as of this post’s writing: numbers as of now
  2.  When 62% were reported, almost all the most underreported areas were, amazingly, Sanders-favoring areas.screweryIt is unclear how this is possible, given many of the dots are in large urban areas with more infrastructure, staffing, etc.
  3. Pete claiming victory was a dishonest, if politically savvy, play before ANY results had been released. It plays into stereotypes about the democratic party; and steals the thunder from the people who deserve it – the voters that came out and decided who actually should have left Iowa with more momentum.

 

Finally, and the thing that could be most damning if it turns out to be the case, it appears the IDP is still making ‘mistakes’ despite taking all this time for ‘quality assurance.’ Link If the numbers that come out differ from the numbers actually taken at various locations (verifiable by campaigns, external sources, etc.) this will obviously indicate a full-blown breakdown of democracy within the democratic party, and make any of their favored candidates fundamentally unelectable. This is still developing, so it is not clear what is happening.

 

All this alongside the many headlines seeking to diminish Iowa’s importance, frame any Sander’s victories as meaningless or unimportant, etc. (example) certainly calls into question the validity of the process, and of our news networks.

To me, this is enough to be fundamentally concerned about the integrity of the democratic party and its favored candidates. If you aren’t convinced then perhaps consider that this Iowa debacle, the impeachment proceedings, etc. have driven Trump to a record high approval rating. This is what resistance in the form of tearing up paper while failing to oppose Trump on material policies, etc. accomplishes. Bravo, Dems. Source: Trump at Record High.

 

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P.S. I didn’t have time or energy to collect all the info on Pete’s campaign and other aspects of the situation but here is some further reading and watching.

  1. The app was developed by a company called Shadow, with close ties to the Buttigieg campaign. More here
  2.  Krystal Ball on Iowa: Here
  3.  More on Pete. I hope I don’t need to explain why Bloomberg is not a valid choice.

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